Surprise! It’s Dataslate time again.

Alongside all the Grotmas gifts that have been handed out over the last week, today 40K gets its latest balance pass, bringing even more presents for some, and pelting others with lumps of coal. Having this arrive in sync with the new detachment this year means we get a joined-up balance experience, and we can all spend our holiday hobby time retooling our arsenals for the new year.

Who’s going to be filled with good cheer and bring war unto all men? Who is going to transform into the Grotmas Grinch? Let’s find out.

We would like to thank Games Workshop for providing us with a preview copy of the balance update for review purposes.

What’s In the Dataslate?

Just Faction changes, this time around. Unless there are some surprise core rules FAQs that we haven’t been warned about that change simply everything, all the action that matters is in the Munitorum Field Manual, the Balance Dataslate, and the Faction Packs that you’ve mostly already seen (although Daemons get some sizeable changes in theirs that launch today, and there’s a new Datasheet for Assault Terminators in Space Marines).

That means if you want to get straight to the details, you’ll want to go check out our superfaction articles where we go through the rundown of changes and faction-by-faction impact, which you can find below:

The rest of this Overview article will cover the headline impact we think these changes will have.

The Video Version

We have a video version of this rundown too! You can check it out here:

Impact

Credit: Robert "TheChirurgeon" Jones

Metagame Context

The metagame for the past quarter has generally been pretty good, reflected in very high event participation and enthusiasm. A wide variety of factions have been represented at a high level, even weaker factions have something they can do, and there’s been some evolution of strategies week-to-week. That said, there are four factions that have been notably overperforming, especially in the final month of the metagame (one only in that period). These are:

Adeptus Mechanicus: They gave Cawl Oaths and it flipped the faction from underpowered to busted. AdMech won the WCW and took a quarter of the top 16 slots, they’ve won plenty of other events despite having a relatively low play rate, and have been hovering in the 60% win rate zone in the last month.
Aeldari: Skated past the last Dataslate with way too light a touch, and have put up fantastic results for most of this period (also taking a quarter of the WCW top 16 and the runner-up finish)…except the last month where they’ve fallen off a bit (though they rallied significantly at the Leicester UKTC supermajor this weekend). In general, the optimal AdMech builds seem to trump the best Aeldari ones, and they also struggle with…
Ultramarines: Victrix Guard have hit the metagame like a freight train, pushing Space Marines right towards the top of the pile, and very clearly being overtuned. They have also overshadowed…
Adepta Sororitas: The most interesting of the stories out of the four here - Sisters started pretty decent, and their results have just gotten better and better as top players have tuned their builds, and are now sitting alongside AdMech on the dangerous fringes of 60% land.

A very strong honourable mention also goes to Raven Guard, whose Shadowmark Talon Detachment was making up a third of Codex Marine builds prior to Victrix appearing, putting up plenty of strong finishes, and would have taken the Ultramarines spot on the list above if it had been written a month ago.

Outliers at the other end are much less numerous, and outside of Imperial Agents (which just don’t seem to be a priority for trying to rebalance), there’s only four factions that really stand out, two which need asterisks on them:

Imperial Knights: Faceplant if an Aeldari list looks at them funny, and don’t have anything as busted as double gatling Infernal Despoilers to prop up their success despite that.
Grey Knights: Have a very one-note Codex that leans on Dreadknights, and thus can also have big problems with the Aeldari menace.
Thousand Sons: Got hit too hard in the last Dataslate with a double tap of points and rules changes, which left their established strategies in the dirt. They have, however, been climbing back up a little in the final month as people have adjusted to building around Scarab Occults and Predators.
T’au: The opposite - were pretty solid for the first two months of the metagame, have had a catastrophic collapse in the last month after taking a big points hit on perhaps their single most important Datasheet, and not being able to hack it into the top AdMech and Marine lists as a result.

Everything else? Fine through great. As we said, it’s been a pretty good metagame, and honestly if you’d cut things a month ago it would have looked like a great one - the balance issues have only become truly stark in the last month, heightened by the arrival of Calgar’s axe-wielding little helpers.

That’s where we were yesterday, so with the changes applied, what does tomorrow hold?

The Winners

Thousand Sons Rubricae Fire Team Credit: Robert "TheChirurgeon" Jones

Thousand Sons: Get a partial rollback of some of the points changes from last time, drops on strong hulls that could fire up a new archetype, and some big rules buffs to Changehost of Deceit. These changes leave the faction with some very powerful strategies, and a good shot of snapping right back up the rankings.
Imperial Knights: Get some small buffs to the actual army, and see their biggest nemesis defanged, letting the Codex finally breathe.
Astra Militarum: Were sitting just outside the top bracket before this, and are left untouched points-wise while receiving a powerful new Grotmas Detachment.
Custodes: Supplement their boosts from last time with even more cuts to Custodian Guard, Sisters of Silence, and Allarus.
Tzeentch Daemons: They’re most powerful in Thousand Sons now, but Kairos and the Lord of Change get some serious love here too (at some cost to Nurgle).

Honourable mentions here go to:

Harlequins: Have a detachment that’s actually good now! If you’ve been pining to take foes to clown town, now’s the time.
Chaos Space Marines: Forgefiends get pushed, they were stealthily on the rise before, and the re-tooled Night Lords Grotmas detachment at least looks like it’ll be fun to test.

The Losers

Asurmen. Credit: Wings

Aeldari: It is me, I have transformed into the Grotmas Grinch. The elf gets very firmly put on the shelf with a double whammy of big rules and points changes that crush the best Aspect Host builds into dust.
Adeptus Mechanicus: Big point nerfs, which should bring them in line with other top-end armies.
Adepta Sororitas: Much the same deal as for AdMech.
T’au: Have the misfortune to have fallen off a cliff in the weeks leading up to the Dataslate, so don’t get the help they need.
Raven Guard: Get hit with some middling point increases, and a nerf to one of their most standout tricks.

Honourable mentions for losers go to:

People who snap bought and painted literally 18 Victrix Guard (maybe): The good news is that there are at least some points added on 6-model Victrix despite them being new (GW have clearly learnt from what happened with Death Guard in the summer), but probably only enough to stop 18 being the play; 12-15 is still exceptionally good, especially because the three model squad went down for some reason.
Black Templars: Get some point hits, reflecting them performing solidly ahead of the Marine pack for the whole period.

The Outcome

Victrix Guard Chapter Ancient Credit: Keewa

Wings: For me, the glaring issue with this Dataslate is that it doesn't do enough on Victrix Guard. Doing something but not enough is a definite improvement on the Death Guard situation in the summer, but I've been working on this week's Competitive Innovations alongside this and woof is 30pts per unit not going to cut it here. I also think that Sisters and AdMech probably get off a bit too lightly at the top, and while the direction of travel is correct for most factions in this (T'au my notable exception), my current gut feel is that except for Aeldari dropping off considerably, the top of the metagame is going to look pretty similar to where it was beforehand, with more changes arising from players teching for Victrix guard than any slate impacts, and a couple of new builds to watch.

That sounds a bit pessimistic, and I should stress that although there are clear outliers, the game is in a pretty decent spot right now, and while I may bemoan the cruel treatment handed down to my poor elves, they probably did do the most damage in terms of freezing out viable strategies, so hitting them hard does more for metagame diversity than shaving a few more points off AdMech or Sisters would. Bah, humbug. Anyway - the game should be fine, but I'd lay a small bet that we won't make it three months without an extra nerf of some kind on Victrix Guard.

Wrap Up

Did the Red Gobbo bring you all the buffs you wanted? If he didn't, can you at least salve the blow by pointing and laughing at elves? Make sure to check out the rest of our coverage from the links up top.

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